A Skeptic Over Coffee: Young Blood Part Duh

Does this cloudy liquid hold the secret to vitality in your first 100 years and beyond? I can’t say for sure that it doesn’t. What I can say is that I would happily sell it to you for $8,000.

Next time someone tries to charge you a premium to intravenously imbibe someone else’s blood plasma, you have my permission to tell them no thanks. Unless there’s a chance that it is fake, then it might be worth doing.

Californian company Ambrosia LLC has been making the rounds in publications like the New Scientist hype-machine to promote claims that their plasma transfusions show efficacy at treating symptomatic biomarkers of aging. Set up primarily to exploit rich people by exploiting younger, poorer people on the off chance that the Precious Bodily Fluids of the latter will invigorate the former, the small biotech firm performed a tiny study of over-35s receiving blood plasma transfusions from younger people. It’s listed on clinicaltrials.gov and everything.

First of all, to determine the efficacy of a treatment it’s important that both the doctors and the patients are blinded to whether they are administering/being administered the active therapeutic. That goes all the way up the line from the responsible physician to the phlebotomist to the statistician analyzing the data. But to blind patients and researchers the study must include a control group receiving a placebo treatment, which in this case there was not. So it’s got that going for it.

To be fair, this isn’t actually bad science. For that to be true, it would have to be actual science. Not only does a study like this require a control to account for any placebo effect*, but the changes reported for the various biomarkers may be well within common fluctuations.

Finally, remember that if you assess 20 biomarkers with the common confidence cutoff of p=0.05, chances are one of the twenty will show a statistical difference from baseline. That is the definition of a p-value at that level: a 1 in 20 chance of a difference being down to random chance. Quartz reports the Ambrosia study looked at about 100 different biomarkers and mentions positive changes in 3 of them. I don’t know if they performed statistical tests at a cutoff level of 0.05, but if so you should expect on average 5 of 100 biomarkers in a screen to show a statistical difference. This isn’t the first case of questionable statistics selling fountain of youth concepts.

All of this is not to say that the experiments disprove the positive effects of shooting up teenage PBFs. It also generated zero conclusive evidence against the presence of a large population of English teapots in erratic orbits around Saturn.

You could conclude by saying “more scientific investigation is warranted” but that would imply the work so far was science.

* The placebo effect can even apply to as seemingly objective a treatment as surgery. Take this 2013 study that found no statistical difference in the outcomes of patients with knee problems treated with either arthroscopic surgery or a surgeon pretending to perform the surgery.

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